Question!
Do unemployment rates in Canada and the United States between year 2000 and the present have a direct correlation towards the homicide rates in Canada? If so positive or negative and how strong is the correlation?
Hypothesis
My prediction is when unemployment rates increase, the amount of homicides increases. Which would cause a moderately strong positive correlation.
Background Information Losing a job can damage the ego and pocketbook, but your state's unemployment compensation program can help ease some of the financial worries. Applying for unemployment can be a daunting task and some background information is needed, but the breathing room a weekly check gives is worth the trouble. Unemployment, as defined by the International Labor Organization, occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the labor force. there are a few types of unemployment that are used to more precisely model the effects of unemployment within the economic system. The main types of unemployment include structural unemployment which focuses on structural problems in the economy and inefficiencies inherent in labor markets including a mismatch between the supply and demand of laborers with necessary skill sets. Structural arguments emphasize causes and solutions related to disruptive technologies and globalization. Discussions of frictional unemployment focus on voluntary decisions to work based on each individuals' valuation of their own work and how that compares to current wage rates plus the time and effort required to find a job. Causes and solutions for frictional unemployment often address barriers to entry and wage rates. Behavioural economists highlight individual biases in decision making and often involve problems and solutions concerning sticky wages and efficiency wages.
Criminal homicide takes several forms and is not always an intentional crime. What type of crime committed in a homicide is determined by the state of mind of the defendant and statutes defining the crime. Murder, for example, is an intentional crime the severity of which is classified by degrees in statute. In some jurisdictions, certain types of murders automatically qualify for capital punishment, but if the defendant in capital cases is mentally retarded in the United States they may not be executed, for reasons described in Atkins vs Virginia, similar to those utilizing an insanity defense. Additionally under homicide there are voluntary and involuntary manslaughter. These differ from murder in that voluntary manslaughter requires provocation. Involuntary manslaughter is completely unintentional, such as a car or hunting accidents. Some jurisdictions define the crime as a separate name in automobile accidents, and the Model Penal Code, which is referred to as a legal text (in limited active use), also defines the crime of negligent homicide as a killing committed negligently. Assisting or helping in someone's suicide is also a crime. If aid progresses beyond mere passive assistance, it may be re-classified as murder.My VariablesINDEPENDENT-- UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment is an economic condition marked by the fact that individuals actively seeking jobs remain unhired. Unemployment is expressed as a percentage of the total available work force. The level of unemployment caries with economic conditions and other circumstances.
DEPENDENT-- HOMICIDES
Homicide refers to the act of a human killing another human. A common form of homicide, for example, would be murder. It can also describe a person who has committed such an act. Homicide is not always a punishable act under the criminal law, and is different than a murder from such formal legal point of view.
Calculations and Work...
One Variable Graphs and Calculations
The following shows one variable analysis for Unemployment vs Time in both the States and Canada
Mean= 5.9
Median= 5.5
Mode= 4.6 and 5.8
Mean= 7.0125
Median= 6.9
The following shows one variable analysis for Homicides in both the States and Canada
The following will show two variable graphs and calculations in two different areas, the US and Canada
Correlation Coefficient= -0.529975609
Correlation Coefficient= 0.611464243
Bias and Sampling Techniques
Stratified Sampling: Canada's unemployment was measured by taking the unemployment rates of every province and territory in Canada, same with the United States, they took the unemployment rates of all the different states.
This survey is a census with a cross-sectional design. Data is collected for all units of the target population, therefore no sampling is done
CONCLUSION
I have found my hypothesis to be correct and incorrect both at the same time. It depends on what area I'm really looking at. Canada has a correlation of 0.611 which proves my hypothesis correct (a moderate strong positive correlation). The US had a correlation of -0.52 which proves my hypothesis wrong because it is a negative correlation. I believe this is because the population in the States is so much greater than Canada's and it is easier to get away with crimes. Even if unemployment goes down the murder rates could still be going up.
Sources............
These links below show the unemployment rates in Canada and the United States
In 2009, the unemployment rate was 8.3 %. Between 1976 and 2009, the unemployment rate reached its highest levels in 1983 (12.0%) and 1993 (11.4%), following two major recessions in Canada. In 2007, Canada recorded its lowest unemployment rate (6.0%) since the mid-1970s.
Unemployment rate, by gender, 1976-2009
From the mid-1970s to the late 1980s, the unemployment rate for men was usually lower than that for women. However since 1990, this trend has reversed and the unemployment rate for women has been consistently lower than that of their male counterparts. In 2009, the unemployment rate for women was 7.0%, while that for men was 9.4%.
Unemployment rate, by age, 2009
Unemployment generally decreases with age. In 2009, the unemployment rate ranged from 15.3% for youth aged 15 to 24 to 4.3% for individuals 65 years of age and over who were in the labor force.
Unemployment rate, selected groups, 2006
In 2006, the unemployment rate for aboriginal people was 14.8%, approximately 8.5 percentage points higher than the national average of 6.3%. People with disabilities (8.6%), lone parents (8.1%), and recent immigrants (12.3%) also experienced higher than average unemployment rates.
Unemployment rate, by region, 2009
In 2009, Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest unemployment rate in the country at 15.5%, 7.2 percentage points higher than the national average of 8.3%. The provinces with the next highest unemployment rates were Prince Edward Island at 12.0% and Nova Scotia at 9.2%. Saskatchewan had the lowest unemployment rate in 2009 at 4.8%, followed by Manitoba at 5.2% and Alberta at 6.6%.
Question!
Do unemployment rates in Canada and the United States between year 2000 and the present have a direct correlation towards the homicide rates in Canada? If so positive or negative and how strong is the correlation?
Hypothesis
My prediction is when unemployment rates increase, the amount of homicides increases. Which would cause a moderately strong positive correlation.
Background Information
Losing a job can damage the ego and pocketbook, but your state's unemployment compensation program can help ease some of the financial worries. Applying for unemployment can be a daunting task and some background information is needed, but the breathing room a weekly check gives is worth the trouble. Unemployment, as defined by the International Labor Organization, occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the labor force. there are a few types of unemployment that are used to more precisely model the effects of unemployment within the economic system. The main types of unemployment include structural unemployment which focuses on structural problems in the economy and inefficiencies inherent in labor markets including a mismatch between the supply and demand of laborers with necessary skill sets. Structural arguments emphasize causes and solutions related to disruptive technologies and globalization. Discussions of frictional unemployment focus on voluntary decisions to work based on each individuals' valuation of their own work and how that compares to current wage rates plus the time and effort required to find a job. Causes and solutions for frictional unemployment often address barriers to entry and wage rates. Behavioural economists highlight individual biases in decision making and often involve problems and solutions concerning sticky wages and efficiency wages.
Criminal homicide takes several forms and is not always an intentional crime. What type of crime committed in a homicide is determined by the state of mind of the defendant and statutes defining the crime. Murder, for example, is an intentional crime the severity of which is classified by degrees in statute. In some jurisdictions, certain types of murders automatically qualify for capital punishment, but if the defendant in capital cases is mentally retarded in the United States they may not be executed, for reasons described in Atkins vs Virginia, similar to those utilizing an insanity defense. Additionally under homicide there are voluntary and involuntary manslaughter. These differ from murder in that voluntary manslaughter requires provocation. Involuntary manslaughter is completely unintentional, such as a car or hunting accidents. Some jurisdictions define the crime as a separate name in automobile accidents, and the Model Penal Code, which is referred to as a legal text (in limited active use), also defines the crime of negligent homicide as a killing committed negligently. Assisting or helping in someone's suicide is also a crime. If aid progresses beyond mere passive assistance, it may be re-classified as murder. My Variables INDEPENDENT-- UNEMPLOYMENT
DEPENDENT-- HOMICIDES
Calculations and Work...
One Variable Graphs and Calculations
The following shows one variable analysis for Unemployment vs Time in both the States and Canada
Mean= 5.9
Median= 5.5
Mode= 4.6 and 5.8
Mean= 7.0125
Median= 6.9
The following shows one variable analysis for Homicides in both the States and Canada
Mean= 16291
Median= 16335.5
Mean= 616.8
Median= 610
Two Variable Graphs and Calculations
The following will show two variable graphs and calculations in two different areas, the US and Canada
Correlation Coefficient= -0.529975609
Correlation Coefficient= 0.611464243
Bias and Sampling Techniques
CONCLUSION
I have found my hypothesis to be correct and incorrect both at the same time. It depends on what area I'm really looking at. Canada has a correlation of 0.611 which proves my hypothesis correct (a moderate strong positive correlation). The US had a correlation of -0.52 which proves my hypothesis wrong because it is a negative correlation. I believe this is because the population in the States is so much greater than Canada's and it is easier to get away with crimes. Even if unemployment goes down the murder rates could still be going up.
Sources............
These links below show the unemployment rates in Canada and the United States
Unemployment Rates for all provinces in Canada:
http://www.hrmguide.net/canada/jobmarket/canadian-unemployment.htm
Unemployment Rates in Canada between the years 1976-2009 displayed in graphs with many different variables:
http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=16
In 2009, the unemployment rate was 8.3 %. Between 1976 and 2009, the unemployment rate reached its highest levels in 1983 (12.0%) and 1993 (11.4%), following two major recessions in Canada. In 2007, Canada recorded its lowest unemployment rate (6.0%) since the mid-1970s.
From the mid-1970s to the late 1980s, the unemployment rate for men was usually lower than that for women. However since 1990, this trend has reversed and the unemployment rate for women has been consistently lower than that of their male counterparts. In 2009, the unemployment rate for women was 7.0%, while that for men was 9.4%.
Unemployment generally decreases with age. In 2009, the unemployment rate ranged from 15.3% for youth aged 15 to 24 to 4.3% for individuals 65 years of age and over who were in the labor force.
In 2006, the unemployment rate for aboriginal people was 14.8%, approximately 8.5 percentage points higher than the national average of 6.3%. People with disabilities (8.6%), lone parents (8.1%), and recent immigrants (12.3%) also experienced higher than average unemployment rates.
In 2009, Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest unemployment rate in the country at 15.5%, 7.2 percentage points higher than the national average of 8.3%. The provinces with the next highest unemployment rates were Prince Edward Island at 12.0% and Nova Scotia at 9.2%. Saskatchewan had the lowest unemployment rate in 2009 at 4.8%, followed by Manitoba at 5.2% and Alberta at 6.6%.
An interactive look at the latest employment data broken down by province and city:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/unemployment-rates-across-canada/article1276023/
http://www.indexmundi.com/canada/unemployment_rate.html
United States Unemployment Rates
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-Rate.aspx?Symbol=USD
Homicide offences, number and rate, by province and territory:
(Number of homicides)||~ ||~ 2005 ||~ 2006 ||~ 2007 ||~ 2008 ||~ 2009 ||
Homicide offences, number and rate, by province and territory, from 2005-2009. In Stats Canada. Retrieved November 17, 2010, from http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/legal12a-eng.htm
United States Crime Rates 1960-2009:
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm